Global Population May Be Undercounted by Over 1 Billion, Study Suggests
A significant portion of the world’s population may have been missed in official census counts, meaning the actual number of people on Earth could exceed current estimates by more than a billion.
While humanity’s absence would have drastically altered the planet, our species remains the dominant force shaping its future—and our numbers continue to rise. Official figures place the global population at just over 8 billion, with projections suggesting it could reach 9 billion by 2037 and 10 billion by 2058.
However, a new study published in Nature Communications argues we may have already surpassed these milestones. The research suggests that rural populations, in particular, may be undercounted by 53% to 84%, potentially leaving over a billion people unaccounted for in global statistics.
Why Are So Many People Missed?
As reported by The Independent, conducting accurate censuses in rural and conflict-affected regions presents major challenges. Researchers often face:
- Remote or inaccessible locations
- Language barriers
- Resistance to participation
- Displacement due to infrastructure projects or violence
When people in these areas are not counted, they effectively “don’t exist” in official records—skewing the data used to estimate global populations.
How the Study Uncovered the Discrepancy
The research team, led by Josias Láng-Ritter from Finland’s Aalto University, analyzed data from 307 dam projects across 35 countries. By comparing the number of people displaced by these projects to the population figures in their resettlement areas, they found glaring inconsistencies.
According to NewScientist, the resettlement data showed population undercounts of at least 53%, with some cases reaching as high as 84%.
“Current population estimates are likely conservative,” Láng-Ritter explains. “We have reason to believe there are significantly more than these 8 billion people.”
Why Accurate Numbers Matter
Correcting these undercounts could have far-reaching implications. Governments rely on census data to allocate resources for:
- Healthcare
- Transportation
- Humanitarian aid
- Urban and rural development
“The impacts may be quite huge,” says Láng-Ritter. “These datasets influence countless policies and actions.”
Beyond adjusting an already staggering statistic, this research could lead to better support for underserved rural communities—potentially improving lives on a global scale.
The findings highlight a critical gap in our understanding of human demographics, suggesting that the world’s population may be much larger—and its challenges more complex—than previously thought.
