The Arctic could lose nearly all its sea ice during summer much sooner than scientists previously thought. A recent study has found that rising greenhouse gas emissions may lead to an “ice-free” Arctic—a condition where less than one million square kilometers of ice remain—as early as the end of this decade.
Published in Nature Communications, the research highlights that the rapid ice loss is closely linked to significant winter and spring warming. Scientists warn that such a shift could have wide-ranging consequences, affecting polar habitats, Arctic communities, and the global climate.
According to Dr. Alexandra Jahn, a researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder and one of the study’s authors, “Unless we manage to hold global temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius, which seems increasingly unlikely, it becomes almost certain that we’ll see ice-free conditions in the Arctic this century.”
Since 1979, the Arctic’s September sea ice has been shrinking at a rate of over 12% per decade, with this year’s minimum ice coverage nearing historic lows. Measurements comparing 2023’s ice extent to the 1981–2010 average indicate an ice loss greater than the size of Alaska, according to NASA.
While earlier studies have focused on ice-free Arctic months during summer (predicted around the 2030s), this new research looks at the first ice-free day. Using computer models, scientists predict this could happen as early as 2027.

On average, once the first ice-free day occurs, the Arctic could remain ice-free for approximately 27 days, with the most likely months being August and September.
This stark possibility doesn’t guarantee 2027 will see an ice-free day, but it highlights the conditions that could cause such a milestone—like multiple years of warmer-than-average winters and springs.
Dr. Céline Heuzé, a climatologist at the University of Gothenburg and study contributor, notes that understanding these conditions is vital for predicting and preparing for the changes ahead.
An ice-free Arctic would mean 94% of its waters turning from white, ice-covered surfaces to open, blue ocean. This dramatic shift underscores the significant impact human activity has on the environment.
There is still hope, though. Scientists emphasize that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could help prevent ice-free conditions altogether. Even if we only manage to reach a slightly higher limit, like 1.6 degrees, it could still significantly shape the Arctic’s future for the better in the decades ahead.
This research serves as another urgent reminder of why collective climate action is more important than ever. Reducing emissions now can make a difference for future generations—and for the Arctic itself.